Eurovision Odds: Predictions and favourites pre-semi

by Richard West-Soley 5,754 views7

As the first semifinal looms, we take a look at the state of play with bookmakers before the live shows kick off.

The past few days have seen some dramatic movements in the odds for outright winner, although still, nothing manages to touch Russia’s Sergey. Punters will currently be lucky to double their money on a Russian win, with some bookies offering odds shorter than evens. Russia is alone amongst tonight’s semifinalists in making the top five of the bookies’ favourites list.

Conversely, Big-Fiver Amir has drifted for France, just hanging on to a third place around lengthened decimal odds of 6-8, shunted downwards by a rocketing Ukraine. Jamala, coming from almost nowhere, has not quite challenged Russia for the favourite spot yet, and has not quite reached the odds France enjoyed some days ago, but is still attracting a huge amount of confidence on odds of 4-6.

Sweden and Australia seem comfortable in fourth and fifth place respectively, Australia having slipped slightly from a strong third place at the beginning of the rehearsal weeks.

It is only in sixth and seventh place that we find two more of tonight’s entries from the first live show; Armenia and Malta look fairly secure as qualifiers, if their odds are anything to go by. The Netherlands join them a little way down in tenth place, still attracting odds as long as 70, separated by Israel – looking good for Thursday’s show – and a bolstered United Kingdom, which enjoyed a swift rise into the higher placings following some strong rehearsals over the past few days.

Qualification records under threat

Much further down the list, Greece may have cause to worry, as the country languishes on dismal odds of up to 700 – perhaps surprising for a country with a 100% semifinal qualification record. A glance at the odds for semifinal qualification confirms that bookies and punters expect a Greek struggle to pass. Likewise, Azerbaijan’s unblemished record may be threatened, with Samra’s odds teetering on the dangerous edge between semifinal success and failure. On the other hand, the Czech Republic looks likely to enjoy its first ever Eurovision final, with quite healthy odds for Gabriela.

San Marino, whilst still lurking in the doldrums, is now challenged for last place by Slovenia and Switzerland, which may give comfort to Serhat’s team as they go into the first show lifted slightly from the bottom of the tank!

Given the current standing, the pooled bookmakers appear to predict the following successful finalists from tonight’s show:

  • Russia
  • Armenia
  • Malta
  • Netherlands
  • Cyprus
  • Czech Republic
  • Iceland
  • Hungary
  • Croatia
  • Austria / Bosnia and Herzegovina / Estonia vying for tenth place
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  • MarioVision

    So according to this prediction
    It really looks like that AZERBAIJAN will not be in the top10 qualifiers of tonight’s SF.
    Interesting because AZE is not even included to the countries that can still may qualify,
    like AUSTRIA,ESTONIA,BOSNIA.

  • MarioVision

    Surprised about NETHERLAND’s 4th place.
    I was possibly expecting for Netherland to might qualify but definitely NOT to do this great.
    Really much more than deserved result for Douwe Bob’s utterly boring song..

  • MarioVision

    My own top18 for tonight 1st SF:

    1st) ARMENIA ——— points
    ———————————————
    2nd) CROATIA ——– points
    3rd) ICELAND ——— points
    ——————–
    4th) HUNGARY ——– points
    5th) CZECH ———— points
    6th) MALTA ————- points
    7th) RUSSIA ———— points
    8th) ESTONIA ———- points
    9th) AUSTRIA ———- points
    10th) AZERBAIJAN —- point
    ———————————————-
    11th) BOSNIA
    12th) MONTENEGRO
    13th) CYPRUS
    14th) NETHERLAND
    15th) GREECE
    16th) MOLDOVA
    17th) SAN MARINO
    18th) FINLAND

  • RostBurov

    My top 10 for Semi 1 was as follows –
    1 Russia
    2 Cyprus
    3 Azerbaijan
    4 Malta
    5 Austria
    6 Hungary
    7 Armenia
    8 Croatia
    9 Bosnia & H
    10. Czech Rep

    The Netherlands in the final is a pure nonsence!

  • Sha

    Nonsence? The only song which was sung flawless without any circus acts or fire.

  • RostBurov

    Well, tastes differ!

  • garry cruickshank

    just a really stupid 10 seconds of silence halfway through the song and the cheesy i love you line, pure americanised crap