News - Simulation predicts Sarajevo 2007 | Eurovision Song Contest News - 2008 Belgrade, Serbia 

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Written by

Richard West-Soley

Published

17/Apr 2006 at 19:53

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New Scientist

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stock_computer

Voting trends analysed by scientist

Simulation predicts Sarajevo 2007

Predicting the outcome of the Eurovision Song Contest is something most fans - and many betting punters - try to do year on year. But a computer scientist from Glasgow has turned to a simulation to spot voting trends over the history of the contest, and based on the results, has projected a likely winner for the 2006 edition.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, programmer Derek Gatherer found that there are pockets of biased voting centering around regions such as the Balkans, Scandinavia and the Baltic states. Gatherer claims that these patterns are strong enough to be used as a prediction tool for the outcome of the contest, and makes a bold prediction for the 2006 winner: Bosnia and Herzegovina, represented this year by Hari Mata Hari with the song Lejla. Simulations of the contest are nothing new. Earlier this year, a team of Austrian Artificial Intelligence researchers put together a program that analysed patterns and gave an identikit-style predicted winner. The outcome of that system suggested the 2006 victor as a Western European man singing a 'happy pop song' - not perhaps how Gatherer's predicted Bosnian winner could be described, except on terms of sex! The differences between the two simulations are worth pointing out; while the Austrian scientists focussed on many factors, including the style and presentation of the performer, the latest prediction from Glasgow seems based (somewhat cynically!) on voting bias, which does not count for everything. The true reliability of either system will be put to the test on May 20th, when 24 countries will battle it out for the real grand prix in Athens.

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Whatever ... [29486]
Mon 24 Apr 2006 00:57:04

There is one deeply passionate LOVE SONG a.k.a. [u]THE[/u] Power BALLAD of the [b]ESC 2006 ATHENS[/b]!

ANNA * VISSI will give everything in her winning(!) ;) performance
of [i]"Everything"[/i] for GREECE!!!

Stay tuned to [i]see[/i] why Euro[i]vision[/i] will be renamed,
this year, to ... [b]Euro[u]VISSI[/u]on[/b]!


[b]ESC 2007 THESSALONIKI[/b] ;)


kimberly shaw [19646]
Sun 23 Apr 2006 18:10:51


dario grujic rossetti [24609]
Sun 23 Apr 2006 14:50:42

Djamila, savrseno. Hvala. Mislim da ce mi ulica u Amsterdamu izluditi od Selme i Evrovizije hehehe. Puno Hvala jos jednom.


Aaa. Belay [31547]
Sat 22 Apr 2006 01:47:45

Just for you all, to know: LEJLA is going to WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So prepare for Sarajevo in May 2007!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And now everybody can start singing Lejla, cause IT IS THE BEST!


Djamila N. [31907]
Fri 21 Apr 2006 19:27:46

Dario, here are the MP3's for Selma's 2004 album:

[url=http://www.menkisystems.at/download/index.php?&direction=0&order=&directory=Selma%20Bajrami%202004[]http://www.menkisystems.at/download/index.php?&direction=0&order=&directory=Selma%20Bajrami%202004[/url]

And for her 2005 album:

[url=http://www.menkisystems.at/download/index.php?&direction=0&order=&directory=Selma%20Bajrami%202005[]http://www.menkisystems.at/download/index.php?&direction=0&order=&directory=Selma%20Bajrami%202005[/url]




dario grujic rossetti [24609]
Fri 21 Apr 2006 14:04:52

Djamila darling, gdje mogu skinuti sa neta mp3 fajlove Selme Bajrami? Hvala


dario grujic rossetti [24609]
Fri 21 Apr 2006 14:02:39

Djamila darling, gdje mogu skinuti sa neta mp3 fajlove Selme Bajrami? Hvala




dario grujic rossetti [24609]
Fri 21 Apr 2006 13:58:53

I JUST WATCHED THE VIDEO. Yes, this is Bosnia and Herzegovina how I remember it. Beautiful. Needless to say more. Great video.


Djamila N. [31907]
Thu 20 Apr 2006 10:40:27

Hari Mata Hari's best song, in my opinion - a duet with Elvira Rahic. ;) This video is very beautiful and the song was #1 in Bosnia forever. It's based on a legend of Yariv (Jew) and Fahreta (Muslim) couple in Sarajevo.

[url=http://www.zippyvideos.com/5743302891955016/elvira/[]http://www.zippyvideos.com/5743302891955016/elvira/[/url]


paprica 453 [32726]
Thu 20 Apr 2006 10:38:12

I don't trust these machines. Last year it was said to be our year and a chance for us to win and we ranked 8th with much risk to be 10th or 11th...


Djamila N. [31907]
Thu 20 Apr 2006 10:34:48

I have another suggestion for you, Rock_me baby. Sanela Sijercic. She's not very famous in Bosnia and Herzegovina, she's kind of a geriatric-folk singer. But she's beautiful herself and her music is okay if you like Islamic folk music:

[url=http://www.zippyvideos.com/3427213163392816/sanela/[]http://www.zippyvideos.com/3427213163392816/sanela/[/url]

She was Miss Sarajevo in 1984 - hahaha.


Whatever ... [29486]
Thu 20 Apr 2006 10:29:59

It looks like the [b]ESC 2006 ATHENS [/b] will be the
[u]Year of THE [i]long-overdue [/i] BALLAD[/u], since most
polls and betting odds seem to suggest this, too!

Good luck to Bosnia & Herzegovina's ~ [i]"Lejla"[/i] at the SEMIFINAL!

Best of luck to GREECE's ~ [i]"Everything"[/i] at the FINAL!!!


[b][u]ANNA * VISSI + "Everything" = Euro[u]VISSI[/u]on[/b][/u] ;)

... Feel the P.A.S.S.I.O.N.!!!

[b]ESC THESSALONIKI 2007[/b]


Naji Shams [22621]
Thu 20 Apr 2006 08:04:55

Go Bosnia..
seriously without even compaing.. i believe it is the best song..
am so so so disappointed at these year's competition.. where are the good songs?


Djamila N. [31907]
Thu 20 Apr 2006 07:38:02

Okay, one more for you, Rock_me baby. This is her most recent single, Tijelo uz tijelo (Body against body). It's filmed at the new Thermal Riviera Resort in Sarajevo. Lots of her dancing in a bikini and a bunch of boys and girls from the University of Sarajevo as extras. ;)

[url=http://media.putfile.com/Selma-Bajrami---Tijelo-uz-tijelo[]http://media.putfile.com/Selma-Bajrami---Tijelo-uz-tijelo[/url]


Djamila N. [31907]
Thu 20 Apr 2006 07:27:07

One more for you, Rock_me baby:

[url=http://www.acidplanet.com/components/embedfile.asp?PID=729885&embed=1&t=2060[]http://www.acidplanet.com/components/embedfile.asp?PID=729885&embed=1&t=2060[/url]
This is her most popular song to date. She does some belly dancing, shows her personality with her silly expressions AND gets hot and heavy with a Jewish model just to piss the fundamentalists off. ;)


Djamila N. [31907]
Thu 20 Apr 2006 07:18:43

Rock_me baby:

Yes, Selma Bajrami is very popular. She has a wonderful personality; in all of her interviews she can barely stop laughing long enough to answer the questions. She married a Christian man (like me, she's also Muslim) and succeeded in getting the Imam's blessing. Typically Imams just look the other way when Muslim women in Bosnia marry non-Muslims, it's common but still not officially sanctioned. But she managed to get a blessing, the first woman in Bosnian history to do so.

Here is my favorite song of hers: [url=http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=vids.individual&videoid=641971171&n=2[]http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=vids.individual&videoid=641971171&n=2[/url]


Sopho's Angelic Voice [25650]
Thu 20 Apr 2006 06:55:38

@ Djamila, thanks for mentioning Selma Bajrami a few days ago in one of the forums. I downloaded some of her songs and I am in love with them, they are excellent. Is she a popular singer in Bosnia?


Djamila N. [31907]
Thu 20 Apr 2006 05:40:40

[b]Another reason to visit Sarajevo![/b]

Big news today. The excavations of Visocica Hill in the city of Visoko, basically a suburb of Sarajevo, confirmed today that the hill is in fact a man-made pyramid.

[url=http://i3.tinypic.com/vyo3fa.jpg[]http://i3.tinypic.com/vyo3fa.jpg[/url]

[url=http://i3.tinypic.com/vybqfm.jpg[]http://i3.tinypic.com/vybqfm.jpg[/url]

Don't forget to stay at Motel Pyramid of the Sun when you visit. :)

[url=http://www.motelpiramidasunca.co.ba/index_en.htm[]http://www.motelpiramidasunca.co.ba/index_en.htm[/url]


Peter Ian [13765]
Thu 20 Apr 2006 02:38:29

I am just wondering is Poland to give Ukraine third time in a row 12 points coz when it happen it will become a tradition, like Cyprus giving 12 points to Greece and Greece giving 12 points back to Cyprus, it's only a shame that Ukraine never gave 12 to Poland :(


Peter Ian [13765]
Thu 20 Apr 2006 02:21:40

I am just wondering is Poland to give Ukraine third time in a row 12 points coz when it happen it will become a tradition, like Cyprus giving 12 points to Greece and Greece giving 12 points back to Cyprus, it's only a shame that Ukraine never gave 12 to Poland :(


seth atkin [23653]
Thu 20 Apr 2006 02:05:43

i do the same sort of prediction every year and it has proven to be quite a reliable system - all about geographical bias and potential political voting preferences .... with serbia gone bosnia does come out top but very close with croatia, romania and greece ..... looking at the betting as well this is probably going to work out well again - however sweden could pull off an upset (though i'd prefer the other 4 for sure)


M Hadzic [24601]
Thu 20 Apr 2006 01:31:52

serbia4ever

fuck u motherrfuckiin serb basterd


M Hadzic [24601]
Thu 20 Apr 2006 01:29:47

serbia4ever

fuck u motherrfuckiin serb basterd


Maria Stephanie [17817]
Wed 19 Apr 2006 21:26:49

[b]Malta[/b] can surprise everyone on the night - I'm sure of that!


jonathan axfeldt [32804]
Wed 19 Apr 2006 19:46:35

Bosnia will win this year...

sad ? . .. . . . . yesitis


Sami K [19835]
Wed 19 Apr 2006 18:39:43

Bosnia is great this year!!!!


Matija Tunjic [32245]
Wed 19 Apr 2006 18:28:34

Djamila, Austria won't participate this time (so it also won't be allowed to vote)!

But you're right! CROATIA WILL WIN!!!!

GO SEVE!!!! ZAGREB 2007


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