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Some thoughts on the draw
Here’s a list of the most recent winners and their places in the draw:
1998 – Isräel – Dana International – Diva 8th (of 25)
1999 - Sweden – Charlotte Nilsson – Take me to your heaven 15th (of 23)
2000 – Denmark – The Olsen Brothers – Fly on the wings of love 14th (of 24)
2001 - Estonia - Tanel Padar & Dave Benton & 2XL – Everybody 20th (of 23)
2002 – Latvia – Marie N – I wanna 23rd (of 24)
2003 – Turkey – Sertab Erener – Every way that I can – 4th (of 26)
2004 – Ukraine – Ruslana – Wild dances 10th (of 24) [11th of 22 in semi]
2005 – Greece – Helena Paparizou – My number 1 – 19th (of 24)
2006 – Finland – Lordi – Hard rock hallelujah – 17th (of 24) [16th of 23 in semi]
Since televoting became the norm, Sertab in 2003 is the only winner from a very early draw (the only winner ever from 4th spot, in fact). Two winners, Estonia 2001 and Latvia 2002, won from late draws. The rest were somewhere in the middle.
We have to go back to 1998 to find a year where none of the last 4 songs performed were in the top 5. So a late draw does have a 25% (1 in 4) chance of a top 5 result—and over 1 in 2 if we consider top 10 placements. The drawer can impact a song’s fortunes, but unless it’s a year with no great songs or performances, the draw is only one factor.
In 1998 there were 25 entries. Songs 23 (Estonia, Koit Toome Mere lapsed), 24 (Turkey, Tüzmen, Unatamazsin), and 25 (FYR Macedonia, Vlado Janevski, Ne zori, zoro) all finished 12th or lower. Mélanie Cohl was the highest placed late performer, with Dis oui ranked 6th after being performed 20th. So none of the late draw songs did especially well. And Vlado Janevski placed 19th of 25 with 16 points…not a great result, but not a terrible one either. Tüzmen’s 14th place (on 25 points) was marginally better. Koit Toome’s equal 12th on 36 points was a pretty good placement, if not a huge score points wise.
Between 1999 and 2002 each year’s Contest had 22, 23 or 24 songs. In 2003 a record 26 songs took part. Here are the placements of songs 20 to 26 in the draw. Top 10 results are in bold:
20 Poland - Zadnych Granic ~Keine Grenzen – Ich Troje – 7th (90 points)
21 Latvia – Hello from Mars- F.L.Y. – 24th (5 points)
22 Belgium – Sanomi – Urban Trad – 2nd (165 points)
23 Estonia – 80s Coming Back - Ruffus – 21st (14 points)
24 Romania – Don’t break my heart – Nicola – 10th (73 points)
25 Sweden - Give Me Your Love– Fame – 5th (107 points)
26 Slovenia - Na na na - Karmen Stavec 23rd (7 points)
It’s a striking pattern: almost precisely every other song doing well and the other badly.
The 2005 semi-final had 25 entries. Of those from slots 20 through 25, three made the top 10 and another two finished 11th and 12th. Looking at the numbers from 1998, 2003, and 2005 it doesn’t seem that a late draw helps or hinders a song’s chances in a Contest with more entries than the norm.
2004
In 2004 Ruslana’s Wild dances was performed 11th in the semi and 10th in the final draws. Ruslana was 2nd in the semi=final, but won the final! Željko Joksimovic won the semi (20th of 22) and finished 2nd in the final (5th of 24) with Lane moje. One could argue Serbia & Montenegro lost some momentum with an earlier draw—except Serbia’s score was identical, 263 points, in both.
Russia, France, and Poland’s absence from the semi-final (they neither showed, nor voted in the semi) doesn’t explain Ukraine’s extra 24 points in the final. The split between Lane moje and Wild dances from those three countries was 25 points to Željko, 24 to Ruslana. One might attribute some of the difference in score to Serbia’s much earlier performance in the final: we’ll never know for certain. Regardless, 2nd is a very good result.
Sakis Rouvas took Shake it to third in both the final and semi. He performed 10th in the semi and scored 238 points. He performed 16th in the final and his score increased to 252 points…but still third place! He picked up a total of 20 points from Russia, Poland and France, though his score only increased 14 points overall.
We also know that the Netherlands sang last (22nd) and qualified 6th with Without you (146 points). Three days later they earned a mere 11 points and finished 20th in the final, after performing 7th. That remains the largest differential between a qualifier and its placing and score in the final a few days later: 15 places and 135 points lower. But considering that Lane moje was performed 2 draws ahead of Without you, the draw alone cannot account for their drop.
2006
Last year Finland’s Lordi won both the semi-final and final with 292 points. In the semi-final they performed Hard rock hallelujah 16th; in the final 17th. Hari Mata Hari earned 2nd place in the semi-final (267 points) performing 22nd of 23 acts with Lejla. In the final they performed 13th and finished 3rd, with 229 points: a loss of 38 points. Conversely Dima Bilan ranked 3rd (217 points) in the semi-final after singing Never let you go 13th. But he performed earlier in the final – 10th spot – and increased his score to 248 and finished second, ahead of Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Carola finished 4th in the semi, where Invincible accrued 214 points from 20th place in the draw. She drew 22nd in the final, ostensibly a better slot, but her score dropped to 170, knocking Sweden back a notch to 5th. That’s a loss of 44 points!
At the other end of the qualifier list Elena Risteka’s Ninanajna earned FYR Macedonia 76 points in the semi, but only 56 in the final—despite singing 11th both nights. And Sibel Tüzün’s Superstar earned 91 points for Turkey on both nights, singing in the semi 14th, and in the final 23rd. Unfortunately her ranking dropped from 8th to 11th, just missing automatic qualification for this year’s final.
On a night where several songs are fighting the middle ground (nice, good, not fantastic, not horrible), performing later does seem to help. But if you’re among the songs competing to win (great song, great performance, memorable), the draw seems less important.
What remains interesting is how much better qualifiers do in the final when compared to the countries pre-qualified. In 2004 6 of the final top 10 were qualifiers, including the top 3. In 2005 7 qualifiers finished in the top 10, though the top 2 songs were from Greece (Helena Paparizou’s My number 1) and Malta (Chiara’s Angel), both of which had automatically qualified from their country’s previous year result. In 2006 8 of 10 were qualifiers. In fact, all 10 qualifiers finished in the top 12, with Turkey missing 10th spot by only 3 points (to Brian Kennedy of Ireland’s Every song is a cry for love).
While based only one 3 years of data, that means an average of 7 of 10 qualifiers got a top 10 result. This can reasonably be attributed to those entries proving their quality by qualifying. It makes sense that the songs that only 2 days earlier did very well in a pan-European televote would do well again in the final. It is also telling that no country pre-qualified for the 2004 final has retained their pre-qualification.
Aside from the big 4 (Spain, Germany, the UK and France) 9 countries (Malta, Greece, Sweden, Romania, Turkey, Croatia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia and Russia) have appeared in all three finals between 2003 and 2006. Of these, Sweden, Russia, Romania, Bosnia & Herzegovina and Greece have already earned their spot in this year’s final in Helsinki. FYR Macedonia and Croatia had to qualify out of the semi-final each year, although the withdrawal of Serbia & Montenegro in 2006 gave Croatia a last-minute bye to the final. Turkey and Malta will have to qualify once again this year to keep their final appearance record intact.
That means that 13 countries have consistently held spots in the final each year. That leaves only 11 spots for the other participating countries. These songs predominance in each year’s final have come from early, middle and late draws. Clearly the draw does not determine an entry’s result.
Related polls
- 2008 esctoday.com award nominations: Best act not to qualify from the semi finals
- 2008 esctoday.com award nominations: Most traditional Europop song
- First quarter final in Bulgaria: your favourite?
- Jury vote, do you agree?
- Jury vote only in the final or in the semis as well?
- What mixture of televote and jury vote do you think is the best?
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The Ones that have deserved to win:
2002 - Malta
2003 - Turkey (so there was no other country, that deserved to win, in my opinion)
2004 - Serbia and Montenegro
2005 - Greece or Israel or Malta or Romania
2006 - Bosnia & Herzegovina or Finland or Romania or Sweden
Very interesting. Thx, Esc!
[b]
shiri maymon should have won in 2005! she was the best EVER!
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chaira sang number 3 for malta and ended 2nd.
John Egan, great article and from a Canadian too! I thought I was one of only few Canadians passionate about ESC. email=elmomaddie@hotmail.com me at email=elmomaddie@hotmail.com]elmomaddie@hotmail.com/email]. I'd love to chat some more about ESC.
Vicky Leandros, you are very right about English speakers being appreciative that Europeans learn our language. I am grateful because if you had not learned English this site would not have existed and I would not have a link to the ESC world from outside Europe. I see many errors in grammar and spelling, but what does it matter when the message is what's important?
Finally, to get back on topic, I'd like to see songs that are directly qualified for the final have a chance to sing their songs once before the final too as we see that final songs have so far been disadvantaged by not being heard twice.
I don't agree.
The importance of the draw doesn't only depend on the number but also on the songs on either side.
In 2006 Sweden in semi was surrounded on either side by two weak songs. Then in the final despite having a later draw they were surrounded by two stronger songs. Invincible didn't stand out as much. That would explain their loss of points.
Also in 2004 the Netherlands ended the semi with a very catchy song, although it wasn't sung well. Nevertheless being last meant that it stayed in the minds of many viewers. Particularly those whose country wasn't competeing and so weren't paying as much attention in that semi such as Ireland. Then in the final, the Netherlands were sandwiched in between a cheerful song from Malta and a similar song from Germany that was performed much better.
Also I feel that coming after the break affects a songs chances. Both Denmark in 2005 and Bosnia-Herzegovina in 2006 scored lower in the finals than they did in the semis. They both had perforemed second last in the semi, both between two badly performed songs.
Therefore I feel that the draw is important in years where there are many songs with good potential as many viewers will only vote for one or two so some songs will overshadow others because of positions in the draw.
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Great analysis! In my opinion the Dutch song in 2004 scored so much lower in the final than it did in the qualifier because it was followed by a similar, albeit better, song from Germany. The fact that these two songs were performed one immediately after the other hurt both songs, but Germany's song was so good it still managed to make the top 10 and [1]Without You[/1] paid the price.
nice job...although statistics is not a futureteller science
There are actually 10 countries who had a place in the final except for the Big 4 every year since 2003. They forgot to mention Norway....
Well, the author of the article forgot to do one kind of research: "how important is it to have a song different from the ones that surround you in the draw?". My personal thought is that your chances grow in case of a situation that you're different from the songs immediately before and after you. Example: 2006---> Brian kennedy in the semi's. After a lot of over the top performances, the quiet Irish song stood out, because it was different.
I think this is worth a research, as that is also part of the draw, not only the startnumber itself.
@Kevin Knight - strictly off topic
About the "washroom"; you remind me of an old english teacher I had. There were two students in my class that had lived in the U.S. for several years, meaning they came home to Sweden with close-to-perfect American English, and consistently got lousy grades because of their use of "americanisms". True, we're not American. But we're also not all British.
Besides I think that the native English speakers should show the rest of us some appreciation for trying to communicate in YOUR language, so that you never have to bother about picking up a second language yourselves.
Just to clarify; I prefer the British variety of English and try to keep my English as "pure" as I can. But it's not easy with all the American influence.
Nevertheless, can someone please tell Dmitri Koldun that it's "able and willing", NOT "able and wheeling". Drives me nuts.
True, the drawing does not imflence the scoring! Good song finds its way.
But, the semi final qualifiers do better than pre qualified countries, is it because of the fact that they performed their songs already, meaning that the audience had a chance to see their performance specially stage one, that in this days is one of the biggest things? With publicity they all get and seen before on stage may result with better ranking?
That is why I think that 2 semi finals should be held, with drawing determinating in which semi country will participate not geograficaly, and than more equal chances for everyone.
@James Donovan
I compeltely agree; in fact I think Germany and Denmark's entries kinda cancelled each other out last year, hence the low placing for both entries!
Terrific job. Doesn't matter the order of performance, the only requirement to do well is a good song, a good singer and a good performance on stage. That's all.
im impressd by article verry good i did enjoyd i think originally act will pass good no mather when they perform also need to be good song too well i remeber Croatia 98 was open Eurovision with Danijela and we where 5 th ... but croatia this year is 13 and i dont think will halp eaven we performe last one
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another factor not taken into account is the songs before and after the song in question..
for example having the 2 drag queens this year performing one after another would not help any of them at all, on the contrary.
ireland's song last year was one of the first ballads in the show after a lot of spectacle and noise, which i believe helped them qualify.
no?
I still believe the draw play an important role in the entry's result
and is not if you perform earlier or late or the number
is between what songs you're performing
Malta is 2nd in esctoday.com (BIG POLL) and 7th in oikotimes (EUROPREDICTION)
Thanks So Much !!!
Very simplistic analysis (and I don't agree with the conclusions).
> At the other end of the qualifier list Elena Risteka’s Ninanajna earned
> FYR Macedonia 76 points in the semi, but only 56 in the final—despite
> singing 11th both nights.
Of course. With the weak songs from the semi-final gone, most countries
(except the two or three best) would (on average) do slightly worse in
the final (where presumably a few good songs would get high places).
> Conversely Dima Bilan ranked 3rd (217 points) in the semi-final after
> singing Never let you go 13th. But he performed earlier in the final –
> 10th spot – and increased his score to 248 and finished second, ahead
> of Bosnia & Herzegovina.
You neglected to mention the most significant reason Dima Bilan improved
his score in the final - Bosnia and Herzegovina performed near the end in
the semi-final (beating Russia), and got the dreaded thirteenth spot in
the final (the first spot after the break always scores significantly
lower than it would otherwise), allowing Russia to pass it up.
Well I don't think it matters ... if you have a good song you can win even from the 1st slot ... Romanian Head Of The Delegation said that the entry that will be after the break will not have such an audience than .. let's say No 19 ... well Romania in 2005 was after the break in the semifinal and ... surprise won that semifinal with 235 points and 6 12 points.
So came with a good song and/or show and people will remember it 
Well I don't think it matters ... if you have a good song you can win even from the 1st slot ... Romanian Head Of The Delegation said that the entry that will be after the break will not have such an audience than .. let's say No 19 ... well Romania in 2005 was after the break in the semifinal and ... surprise won that semifinal with 235 points and 6 12 points.
So came with a good song and/or show and people will remember it
please please please change washroom to bathroom or toilet-- we are not amrican!!!!!
please
I think songs which perform in last quart has much more chances! 
In my opinion, i don't think that the results depend of the place during the show.... Every year it's different.... the songs after the 20th position may have an advantage because the memory of the viewers is better.... but Turkey 2003? All is in the song, on stage, in live, the singer, the choregraphy, the originality.... Even if Lordi would have sung in 1st position, they'd have won...
Good article. I enjoyed it alot specifically as I look at the draw with some interest.
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