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Written by
John Egan
Published
10/Apr 2007 at 07:35
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Douze points & the crystal ball
Are some countries better than others in giving their douze points to the eventual winner? We have the answer!
Getting the most douze (12) points does not mean winning the Eurovision Song Contest: getting the most points overall does. The current douze points system, in place since 1975, is designed to favour entries that are ranked first or second by each voting country over scores ranked lower. Instead of assigning values of 1 through 10, the Contest changes the last two to 10 (instead of 8) and 12 (instead of 10). It’s what’s known as a Borda count, which is designed to skew results in favour of the more popular entries—and to avoid ties.
Of course we had a tie under douze points, in 1991 when France’s Amina (La dernier qui a parlé) and Sweden’s Carola (Fångad av en stormvind ) each ended up with 146 points overall. Carola won on the count back: both France and Sweden had 4 douze points, but Sweden earned more dix points(5) than France (2). We’ve also had a number of very tight Contests, including one (1988), two (2003), and four point (1981) victories. In 2003, there were only three points separating the top 3 songs—the tightest finish since 1975!
But are there any voting trends that can help us predict who will win? More specifically are some countries better at picking a winner – by awarding them 12, or perhaps 10, points – than others?
Of course we had a tie under douze points, in 1991 when France’s Amina (La dernier qui a parlé) and Sweden’s Carola (Fångad av en stormvind ) each ended up with 146 points overall. Carola won on the count back: both France and Sweden had 4 douze points, but Sweden earned more dix points(5) than France (2). We’ve also had a number of very tight Contests, including one (1988), two (2003), and four point (1981) victories. In 2003, there were only three points separating the top 3 songs—the tightest finish since 1975!
But are there any voting trends that can help us predict who will win? More specifically are some countries better at picking a winner – by awarding them 12, or perhaps 10, points – than others?
What we did
We’ve analyzed voting patterns in two different data sets. First we considered the entire 12 points era, from 1975 to 2006. But with televoting now the primary way of allocating votes, we analyzed 1998 to 2006 separately, in case the trends have changed with televoting.
We wanted to have some sort of concrete (albeit crude) indicator of any country’s ability to foreshadow the winner by giving them douze points. A Borda count is nicely set up to conduct such an analysis, with its skewed points distribution
So we:
-tabulated all the 12 points earned by each year’s winning entry
-tabulated all the 10 points earned by each year’s winning entry as well
-tabulated how often the first recipient of 12 points ended up winning that year
We did this twice: from 1975 to 2006 and from 1998 to 2006. We then analysed how often:
-the first douze points tells us the actual winner
-each country awarded its douze points “correctly” – to the eventual winner
-each country awarded its 10 points to the eventual winner
We’ve analyzed voting patterns in two different data sets. First we considered the entire 12 points era, from 1975 to 2006. But with televoting now the primary way of allocating votes, we analyzed 1998 to 2006 separately, in case the trends have changed with televoting.
We wanted to have some sort of concrete (albeit crude) indicator of any country’s ability to foreshadow the winner by giving them douze points. A Borda count is nicely set up to conduct such an analysis, with its skewed points distribution
So we:
-tabulated all the 12 points earned by each year’s winning entry
-tabulated all the 10 points earned by each year’s winning entry as well
-tabulated how often the first recipient of 12 points ended up winning that year
We did this twice: from 1975 to 2006 and from 1998 to 2006. We then analysed how often:
-the first douze points tells us the actual winner
-each country awarded its douze points “correctly” – to the eventual winner
-each country awarded its 10 points to the eventual winner
And the first douze points go to…
Whomever…receiving the first 12 points is exciting…but not much else. In 1994 Hungary’s Friderika (Kinek mondjam el vétkeimet) received douze points from the first three countries, only to finish 4th. In fact, between 1975 and 2006 on 12 occasions has the entry that received the first douze points ended up winning. In the televoting era it’s only happened twice. What does the first douze points tell us? Not much, but it’s always nice to get douze points, non?
If we wanted to look at the other way, only Yugoslavia’s Riva (Rock me,1989) and Isräel’s Dana International (Diva, 1998) earned nul points (zero points) from the first country’s scores. That means that one of the entries to receive some of the first 10 point allocations generally wins…although two of nine winners in the televoting era (1998 and 2005) did not. And with nearly twice as many countries voting in the semi-final era (since 2004), the possibility that a winner might not garner a single point from several countries—including the first one calling in their votes—increases.
Whomever…receiving the first 12 points is exciting…but not much else. In 1994 Hungary’s Friderika (Kinek mondjam el vétkeimet) received douze points from the first three countries, only to finish 4th. In fact, between 1975 and 2006 on 12 occasions has the entry that received the first douze points ended up winning. In the televoting era it’s only happened twice. What does the first douze points tell us? Not much, but it’s always nice to get douze points, non?
If we wanted to look at the other way, only Yugoslavia’s Riva (Rock me,1989) and Isräel’s Dana International (Diva, 1998) earned nul points (zero points) from the first country’s scores. That means that one of the entries to receive some of the first 10 point allocations generally wins…although two of nine winners in the televoting era (1998 and 2005) did not. And with nearly twice as many countries voting in the semi-final era (since 2004), the possibility that a winner might not garner a single point from several countries—including the first one calling in their votes—increases.
Whose douze
Looking to see if any country (or countries) have a particularly strong record at awarding maximum points to the eventual winner is a bit more interesting...and complicated. First we catalogued which countries awarded 12 points to each year’s eventual winner. Then we aggregated the totals for each point awarding country over the two eras (all douze point versus televoting era).
To make it a bit more complex, not every country competed every year: after 1993 a remarkable list of Contest wanna-bes queued up, requiring a relegation system (4 different systems, actually) until we started having semi-finals in 2004.. One competing country has now become several (Yugoslavia). And on various occasions countries have elected to sit out a year. One could argue that counting all the years’ results when considering the predictive power of, say, Lithuania’s douze points makes little sense.
We agree. But the various combinations and permutations are mind boggling. Noting which countries have, over time, supported more winning entries than other countries who have participated for similar lengths of time in the douze points era still tells us a fair bit. And we are calculating the televoting era as well. This will have to do.
The most frequent awarders of douze points to the winner between 1975 and 2006 have been:
United Kingdom 12 times
Isräel 11times
Sweden & Turkey 10 times
The quick-and-dirty approach would be to divide each of these numbers by 32—the number of years counted. But Isräel (1978, 79 & 98) and the UK (76, 81 & 97) have each won 3 times over that 32 year span. So for Isräel and the UK we used 29 rather than 32 years—after all, you cannot award yourself douze points! The UK’s 12 out of 29 years represents picking the winner 41% of time. Isräel’s 11 of 29 calculates as 38%. Sweden won thrice in the period (leaving 29 years available), so their 10/29 translates as 35%. Turkey’s single win means they picked the winner 10 of 31 times, 32% of the time.
But someone very important is missing from the list: Ireland. Having given 12 points to the winner 9 times is quite a bit less than the UK—and a few other countries also scored 9. But having won the Contest 6 times over those same 32 years gives Ireland’s 9 of 26 a score of 35%. And puts Ireland just ahead of Turkey for joint third with Sweden. Overall.
That’s one way of looking at it: here’s another. If we look at all 5 (UK, Isräel, Ireland, Sweden & Turkey) of these countries’ records awarding 12 points throughout the period, only in 1998 and 2003 did none of them award top marks to the eventual winner.
In many respects 1998 and 2003 were the two closest contests in the televoting era. In each year one of the five (Isräel in 1998; Turkey in 2003) won—leaving only four to award their douze points to the winner. 1998 was an exceptionally close year where no song garnered more than the 4 douze points received by Malta’s Chiara, who finished third with The one that I love. In 2003, when Russia’s t.A.T.u (Ne ver ne boisya) netted the most (5) douze points…and also finished third. Turkey won, so that left only Germany (10 points), Sweden, (8), Isräel (7) and Ireland, who gave Turkey nul points.
So in years with a very close Contest, douze points are just that: 12 points. They tell us…not much.
Looking to see if any country (or countries) have a particularly strong record at awarding maximum points to the eventual winner is a bit more interesting...and complicated. First we catalogued which countries awarded 12 points to each year’s eventual winner. Then we aggregated the totals for each point awarding country over the two eras (all douze point versus televoting era).
To make it a bit more complex, not every country competed every year: after 1993 a remarkable list of Contest wanna-bes queued up, requiring a relegation system (4 different systems, actually) until we started having semi-finals in 2004.. One competing country has now become several (Yugoslavia). And on various occasions countries have elected to sit out a year. One could argue that counting all the years’ results when considering the predictive power of, say, Lithuania’s douze points makes little sense.
We agree. But the various combinations and permutations are mind boggling. Noting which countries have, over time, supported more winning entries than other countries who have participated for similar lengths of time in the douze points era still tells us a fair bit. And we are calculating the televoting era as well. This will have to do.
The most frequent awarders of douze points to the winner between 1975 and 2006 have been:
United Kingdom 12 times
Isräel 11times
Sweden & Turkey 10 times
The quick-and-dirty approach would be to divide each of these numbers by 32—the number of years counted. But Isräel (1978, 79 & 98) and the UK (76, 81 & 97) have each won 3 times over that 32 year span. So for Isräel and the UK we used 29 rather than 32 years—after all, you cannot award yourself douze points! The UK’s 12 out of 29 years represents picking the winner 41% of time. Isräel’s 11 of 29 calculates as 38%. Sweden won thrice in the period (leaving 29 years available), so their 10/29 translates as 35%. Turkey’s single win means they picked the winner 10 of 31 times, 32% of the time.
But someone very important is missing from the list: Ireland. Having given 12 points to the winner 9 times is quite a bit less than the UK—and a few other countries also scored 9. But having won the Contest 6 times over those same 32 years gives Ireland’s 9 of 26 a score of 35%. And puts Ireland just ahead of Turkey for joint third with Sweden. Overall.
That’s one way of looking at it: here’s another. If we look at all 5 (UK, Isräel, Ireland, Sweden & Turkey) of these countries’ records awarding 12 points throughout the period, only in 1998 and 2003 did none of them award top marks to the eventual winner.
In many respects 1998 and 2003 were the two closest contests in the televoting era. In each year one of the five (Isräel in 1998; Turkey in 2003) won—leaving only four to award their douze points to the winner. 1998 was an exceptionally close year where no song garnered more than the 4 douze points received by Malta’s Chiara, who finished third with The one that I love. In 2003, when Russia’s t.A.T.u (Ne ver ne boisya) netted the most (5) douze points…and also finished third. Turkey won, so that left only Germany (10 points), Sweden, (8), Isräel (7) and Ireland, who gave Turkey nul points.
So in years with a very close Contest, douze points are just that: 12 points. They tell us…not much.
12 + 10 = ?
Those are interesting calculations, but there still aren’t any particularly striking trends. We therefore decided to see if including each voting country’s 12 and 10 point allocation might be a better predictor of the eventual winner?
Here are the most frequent awarders of 12 and 10 points to the eventual winner from 1975 to 2006, with the 12 + 10 breakdown in parentheses:
Netherlands 17 (9 + 8)
Sweden 16 (10 + 6)
Ireland 15 (9 + 6)
UK 15 (12 + 3)
Isräel 14 (11 + 3)
And up pops the Netherlands, who, having won in 1975, awarded 12 or 10 points to the eventual winner 17 out of 31 Contests: 55% of the time. Sweden’s 16 of 29 Contests (remember, wins, in 84, 91 & 99) also works out to 55%. The UK’s 15 of 29 Contests (3 wins) represents 52%; Isräel’s 14 of 29 Contests (also 3 wins) is 49%. Ireland’s 15 of 26 Contests (6 wins) works out to 58%. Despite a lower total but aided by many more wins, Ireland once again noses ahead of the rest.
In fact, the only years that none of these 5 countries have awarded 12 or 10 points to the eventual winner is…never. Ever. So every year one of these five – Netherlands, Sweden, Ireland, UK or Isräel- has given one of its two top scores to the eventual winner. That’s pretty predictable, right? We thought so too.
Those are interesting calculations, but there still aren’t any particularly striking trends. We therefore decided to see if including each voting country’s 12 and 10 point allocation might be a better predictor of the eventual winner?
Here are the most frequent awarders of 12 and 10 points to the eventual winner from 1975 to 2006, with the 12 + 10 breakdown in parentheses:
Netherlands 17 (9 + 8)
Sweden 16 (10 + 6)
Ireland 15 (9 + 6)
UK 15 (12 + 3)
Isräel 14 (11 + 3)
And up pops the Netherlands, who, having won in 1975, awarded 12 or 10 points to the eventual winner 17 out of 31 Contests: 55% of the time. Sweden’s 16 of 29 Contests (remember, wins, in 84, 91 & 99) also works out to 55%. The UK’s 15 of 29 Contests (3 wins) represents 52%; Isräel’s 14 of 29 Contests (also 3 wins) is 49%. Ireland’s 15 of 26 Contests (6 wins) works out to 58%. Despite a lower total but aided by many more wins, Ireland once again noses ahead of the rest.
In fact, the only years that none of these 5 countries have awarded 12 or 10 points to the eventual winner is…never. Ever. So every year one of these five – Netherlands, Sweden, Ireland, UK or Isräel- has given one of its two top scores to the eventual winner. That’s pretty predictable, right? We thought so too.
Televoting’s impact
Most followers of the Eurovision Song Contest agree that televoting has changed the nature of the Contest in a number of ways, not the least of which is who wins. So what happens if we repeat these calculations, but limit them to the televoting era, 1998 to 2006?
The most frequent awarders of 12 points to the winner the televoting era are:
United Kingdom , Isräel, Spain & Estonia 4 times
Sweden, Turkey & Latvia 3 times
Of these 7 countries, all but Latvia have competed (and voted) in all 9 years, although not necessarily in the final (Isräel and Latvia have made it to two finals; Estonia none). Latvia, Isräel, Estonia, Sweden and Turkey have each won once in the televoting era; the UK and Spain have not. Latvia has participated every year since its 2000 début - 7 times, including one win in 2002; as a result, Latvia’s awarding douze points to the winning song 3 out of 6 years represents getting it right 50% of the time. Estonia’s and Isräel’s 4 out of 8 years also works out to 50% . The UK’s and Spain’s 4 of 9 works out to 44%. Sweden and Turkey lag a bit behind with 3 of 8 years, or 38%. Ireland falls out of the equation entirely in the televote era having only awarded 10 points to an eventual winner: Estonia (Tanel Padar & Dave Benton & 2XL with Everybody) in 2001.
Aggregating the frequent top point awarders (12 or 10 points ) for the televote era is a bit of a mess. Germany, with 6 (of 9) times, comes out ahead, with a predictive value of 67%. Then a crowd of countries (Sweden , Netherlands, Isräel, Spain, Poland, Belgium, Turkey, Greece, the UK and Lithuania) did it 4 times. Ten countries with the same score in a 9 year range of events doesn’t calculate to anything meaningful.
Based on 12 points alone, watch Latvia, Estonia and Isräel and flip a coin: they seem to pick the eventual winner about half the time. Or check out the top two countries Germany gives their points to…and your odds are slightly better there at 67%. But all of these calculations are built on a very limited data set: 9 Contests: your mileage may vary...
Most followers of the Eurovision Song Contest agree that televoting has changed the nature of the Contest in a number of ways, not the least of which is who wins. So what happens if we repeat these calculations, but limit them to the televoting era, 1998 to 2006?
The most frequent awarders of 12 points to the winner the televoting era are:
United Kingdom , Isräel, Spain & Estonia 4 times
Sweden, Turkey & Latvia 3 times
Of these 7 countries, all but Latvia have competed (and voted) in all 9 years, although not necessarily in the final (Isräel and Latvia have made it to two finals; Estonia none). Latvia, Isräel, Estonia, Sweden and Turkey have each won once in the televoting era; the UK and Spain have not. Latvia has participated every year since its 2000 début - 7 times, including one win in 2002; as a result, Latvia’s awarding douze points to the winning song 3 out of 6 years represents getting it right 50% of the time. Estonia’s and Isräel’s 4 out of 8 years also works out to 50% . The UK’s and Spain’s 4 of 9 works out to 44%. Sweden and Turkey lag a bit behind with 3 of 8 years, or 38%. Ireland falls out of the equation entirely in the televote era having only awarded 10 points to an eventual winner: Estonia (Tanel Padar & Dave Benton & 2XL with Everybody) in 2001.
Aggregating the frequent top point awarders (12 or 10 points ) for the televote era is a bit of a mess. Germany, with 6 (of 9) times, comes out ahead, with a predictive value of 67%. Then a crowd of countries (Sweden , Netherlands, Isräel, Spain, Poland, Belgium, Turkey, Greece, the UK and Lithuania) did it 4 times. Ten countries with the same score in a 9 year range of events doesn’t calculate to anything meaningful.
Based on 12 points alone, watch Latvia, Estonia and Isräel and flip a coin: they seem to pick the eventual winner about half the time. Or check out the top two countries Germany gives their points to…and your odds are slightly better there at 67%. But all of these calculations are built on a very limited data set: 9 Contests: your mileage may vary...
Our crystal ball says
That some of the voting patterns are more interesting than others, though many of the trends from the first 20 years of the douze points system haven’t held up in the era of televoting. Overall the Netherlands, Sweden, Ireland, Isräel and the UK have been very reliable in awarding 10 or 12 points to the eventual winner—at least one of them, that is. In the televoting era Latvia, Estonia and Isräel are running at 50% for giving their douze points to the eventual winner.
One could argue that Isräel, as the only country with some predictive power. Of a sort. In fact, the lowest placing any song receiving Isräel’s douze points is 2003’s Spanish entry by Beth (Dime), which ended up in 8th place. Most of their picks have ended up in the top 4. Germany seems to have a knack for giving a lot of points to the eventual winner, if not always the maximum number of points.
There’s just one small problem. In this year’s voting draw, Isräel is 21st, more than halfway down the list! Germany is one slot behind (22nd), Estonia (30th) and Latvia (36th) are even farther back. All too late for us to use their votes as our crystal ball—this year. We’ll just have to wait until the end!
That some of the voting patterns are more interesting than others, though many of the trends from the first 20 years of the douze points system haven’t held up in the era of televoting. Overall the Netherlands, Sweden, Ireland, Isräel and the UK have been very reliable in awarding 10 or 12 points to the eventual winner—at least one of them, that is. In the televoting era Latvia, Estonia and Isräel are running at 50% for giving their douze points to the eventual winner.
One could argue that Isräel, as the only country with some predictive power. Of a sort. In fact, the lowest placing any song receiving Isräel’s douze points is 2003’s Spanish entry by Beth (Dime), which ended up in 8th place. Most of their picks have ended up in the top 4. Germany seems to have a knack for giving a lot of points to the eventual winner, if not always the maximum number of points.
There’s just one small problem. In this year’s voting draw, Isräel is 21st, more than halfway down the list! Germany is one slot behind (22nd), Estonia (30th) and Latvia (36th) are even farther back. All too late for us to use their votes as our crystal ball—this year. We’ll just have to wait until the end!
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- Jury vote only in the final or in the semis as well?
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Mon 14 May 2007 14:38:51
> I thought the UK public was good at giving
> points to the winner
That reputation took a big hit for that this year - they shut out Serbia (gave them no points).
Some of the other barometer countries mentioned didn't do too well either:
0 from Estonia
0 from Turkey
1 from Spain
3 from Israel
3 from Latvia
4 from Ireland
Wouldn't it be fairer to see how many points the winners gave to the 2nd placed country? i.e. how many points did Turkey give to Belgium in 2003, Sweden to Iceland in 1999 etc. ?
A very good article. I thought the UK public was good at giving points to the winner 
Also, we could use the televoting results for Sweden, Austria, Switzerland, Germany and the UK in 1997 to tell us more. Sweden, Austria and Switzerland get another 12, Germany gets a 10 and the UK would get a 12 (maximum to 2nd placed Ireland).
Ireland gave 12 to Denmark in 2000.
In 1998, Malta AND the UK received 4 x 12 points (Croatia, Israel, Romania, Turkey).
Sorry if I sound pedantic 
Don't we write Israël ?
Um, another mistake...
Helena Paparizou did receive points from the first country (Austria) in 2005. She got 4.
Great article!
Oh I see! ups! thanks for correcting me:-D
Sorry!
Sean O'Brien, technically Kevin is right as televoting was first introduced in 1997 although only within a few countries. 1998 was the first where the majority of countries had televoting.
@ Kevin Knight. The UK was the last to win by jury. The contest in Birmingham was the first to use televoting and so Israel was the first country that won by televoting.
Sweden has won 3 times since 1975, not twice (1984, 1991, 1999)
I was surprised to see that Sweden has awarded so much points to the eventual winners. Haven't you also heard that Latvia was the best to give high points to the winners? That seems to be far from truth.
The Uk did win the the televoting era, the first to do so
i made a poll after the 2000 contest to see what the average number of points each country awarded the winning song. At the time, [b]Russia[/b] had a perfect 12 (from 5 participations) and so did [b]Latvia[/b] (from one participation). [b]Morocco[/b] had an absolute 0 (didn't like [i]Johnny Logan[/i]) and [b]Croatia[/b] has something like 4 point avergae to the winning song.
Don't remember the rest of the results. I actually donated these results to [i]Jarmo's Eurovision Statistics[/i] site but he decided not to use them i guess
Sun 8 Apr 2007 09:16:03
@ Andreas
Of course Ireland won 7 times! But between 1975 and 2006 ireland won SIX times!
!!! Ireland has won 7 times!!! NOT 6 times!!! Can one rely on your calculations when you make such a big mistake? -I hope not to find any more!!!
Ireland has indeed won 7 times...
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